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Can China Feed itself?

Introduction

The question, can China feed itself, cannot be answered by only considering the availability of land and water resources. China's future food security will depend on changes in China's population, the diet preferred by that population, the rate of urbanization, agricultural and economic policies, changes in technology as well as changes in the supply and quality of arable land and water. It is a multi-dimensional problem. It cannot be solved by dealing with one dimension only - such as by focusing on the problem of soil erosion. There are at least seven dimensions that play a major role in China's food prospects: (1) population growth, (2) diet change, (3) urbanization, (4) size and quality of arable land, (5) supply of water, (6) policies and economic arrangements, and (7) scientific and technological developments. In answering this question you will need to take into account biophysical, climatic, hydrological, demographic, social, economic, and political dimensions.

The main website is www.iiasa.ac.at/Research/LUC/ChinaFood/index_m.htm

Your task

  • Each person pick one or two aspects (of the problem) that you will research

Research

  • Carry out the research by using either the internet or CD ROM.
  • The arguments matrix (e.g. of layout below) is a very good starting point.
  • Use the headings in the first row to structure your answer/presentation.
 

Trends

Impact

Data Quality

Prediction Error

Intervention Possibilities

Intervention costs

Population

Massive growth unavoidable

Massive growth unavoidable

Good

Very large

Possible but limited

Not very cost effective

Change in Diet

Data shows rapid changes in diet

Drives feed crop demand

Medium

Large

Difficult, impossible

High

Urbanisation

Rapid urbanisation is likely

Commercial etc

Very poor

Large but trend clear

Very difficult

Very high

Arable land/soils

Scarcity, highly unreliable land use data

Decline, degradation, soil loss

Poor

Large

Possible

Very high

Water resources

Growing demand regionally very scarce

Deficit, flooding, pollution

Mixed

Large

Possible

Very high

Agricultural Policy

Liberalization of agricultural policy since 1978

Increases efficiency

Uncertain

Very large

Possible

Low

Science and Technology

Improved science and technology

Increased

productivity

adequate

large

Possible

Medium

The matrix was developed as a tool for decision makers who need to consider and evaluate the many dimensions of China's food problem, which are linked to various interest groups both inside and outside of China (farmers, consumers, industry, scientists, administrators, and politicians).

  • Make sure you have also looked at the data, FAQ, in depth, presentation, summary and web links sections.
  • You will need a copy of an internet browser to run the CD ROM.

Discussion

  • Discuss your findings with the other person who has researched the same aspect from the other group/groups.

Presentation

  • Prepare the presentation: structure, timing, order, handouts, OHPs, powerpoint? etc.
  • Practice the presentation.
  • Present your findings.
  • The group/groups not presenting should listen, take notes and be prepared to ask questions and make constructive suggestions at the end.

Essay

Each person to complete an essay on "Can China feed itself?"